The Pak tryst with democracy has been almost a joke in the comity of nations. The mililitary interventions have been so rapid and the army rules so much pronounced that rarely one thinks about free elections and an elected govt in Pakistan. The coming of democratic govts and their military takeovers have been like the rapid chess games. The army there has tasted blood(power) and feels restless without it. Today, once again,Pakistan is on the threshold of a general election on May 11, 2013. This election being staged amid badly disturbed internal peace, is not evoking much interest in the voters. Despite that, a general election of any country is a big event and hence the likely prospects of contesting parties appear to be quite interesting.
At the outset, with Genl Perwez Musharraf, Imran Khan, Mian Nawaz Sharif and of course Asif Ali Zardari, It clearly looked like being a four-cornerd war at the hustings. However, with the cancellation of the nomination papers of Musharraf from all the four constiruencies, his fate was sealed. Thus with the remaining only three important stake holders in the field, the contest, by far has become triangular. There are several other minor groups and individuals as independent candidates in the fray, but they can be ignored. Very few of them, holding local following, may either marginally win or cause defeat of an important contestant through split votes. On previous occasions, being a stiff anti-Indian, was supposed to be the greatest qualification of a candidate. One who talked about forcibly taking back India-held Kashmir, was treated as a real hero. Quite contrarily, this time, all the major players, in their manlfestoes, have decleared to solve Kashmir problem amicably and foster Indo-Pak friendship. It appears that the traditional war mongering has been given a goodbye.
The Pak watchers, by and large are of the opinion that the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by Nawaz Sharif is having a better chance of emerging as the single largest party. They view that since he was dethroned by Musharraf, he is likely to get more sympathy votes. Moreover, the present dispensesion, not delivering the good, has caused frustration in the public and hence they appear to be in favour of change. In India, his talk of friendship does not appear dependable because while he was talking with Vajpayee for peace, his army was stealthily capturing summits in Kargil. The Tahreek-e Insaf of Imran Khan is also highly optimistic of winning the electin. Recently while in India, he had declared his victory as a foregone conclusion and assured of friendly relations with India. It is further believed that internally he enjoys army support. However, his strong anti-militant stand is a big minus point. Even his personal security is at stake. The third major player is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). President Zardari is a known corrupt leader since the days of Benazir Bhutto’s premiership. Even as the present President, he has failed to restore normalcy, take the country on economic growth path and improve Indo-Pak bilateral relations. Day in and day out, the terrorists are killing people and the administration is a mute spectator.The army is also not happy with his performance. On several occasions in the recent past, the army take over loomed large. On April 29, the judiciary banned Musharraf for life from contesting any election. Judicary, army and the terrorists are more proactive than ever before. The black shadows of disturbances appear so likely that the completion of the election seems in jeopardy.
In this backdrop, despite the tall talks of rival parties, hardly any clear verdict in favour of any party appears possible. The only clear indication is that the votes will be so much divided that no single party will be able to form govt. They are so diametrically opposed to one another that even a coalition does not seem to be a possibility. This uncertain political situation will be an excellent opportunity for Genl Kayani, waiting in the wings, to grab power.
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