CHANGING FACES OF NAXALISM

Left extremism is today more popularly known as Naxalism as its founding father, Kanu Sanyal, in 1960s launched this bloody movement in a West Bengal interior named as Naxalbari. It immediately surprised the people in the entire country as they had never heard about such a strange political development. It took no time to spread to different parts of Bengal and undivided Bihar. Their tactics included guerilla warfare as they selected small targets in farflung corners and killed their class enemies.

The experts of the subject hold the view that extremism or terrorism has a maximum lifespan of ten years after which it peters out. According to them no problem in the world has so far been solved through terrorism. Punjab is a burning example.  But it may linger if it has support from the neighbouring enemy countries and internal sympathizers. That is why even after nearly half a century, the movement, though spread to the states like West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh, it has not been able to do anything appreciable for the Adivasis and other downtrodden people. With pressure from the Govt, they are pushed against the wall and counting their last days. Particulrly the strict anti-Naxalism measures of P. Chimbaram, former Home Minster made their life miserable. They started carrying on a few misadventures to press the Govt to stop their police actions. The Bastar incident of May25,2013, in which 27 people, mostly of the Chhattisgarh Congress were mercilessly butchered, was also intended to show that they are still alive and kicking and the Govt should not ignore them as a squeezed force.

Of late, there has been a trend in J&K militants and the Naxalites that the wayward elements, who have no job, no recognition in the society, join these anti-national activities and think themselves as heroes. They have nothing to do with the ideology. Their main interests are money, sex and lavish life style. As a result, the movement is losing its appeal. The authentic books on terrorism mention that militancy succeeds when it gets transformed into insurgency. Similarly insurgency fails when it reverts to militancy. In such a situation, they lose the public support and without that the struggle is bound to die out. It has already happened elsewhere  and is going soon to grip the Naxalites in India.

To be precise, Nxalism is raising its head in the districts of Nalanda, Jahanabd and Gaya of Bihar, Malkangiri and Koraput of Odisha, Palmau of Jharkhand, Sirkakulam of Andhra and Bastar of Chhattisgarh. For these districts, already 82,000 central police forces are deputed. Bastar alone has 22.000 and the local administration is demanding for additional 30,000 personnel which is being favourably considered. Similarly. The Air Force has shifted its helicopter base from Gorakhpur to Nagpur for better reachability. Important Naxalite leaders have been nabbed in Bihar and Chhattisgarh. Their end appears to be round the corner.  

BUT NOW NITAQAT

It was in 2010 when I had gone to Singapore. Just near the famous Mustafa Mall, I went to a South Indian restaurant. I ordered for masaldosa. While waiting  for the service, to my utter surprise, I saw a tall Chinese chef preparing masaldosa. Only after a few minute, I saw a Chinese waiter, ready to serve me. I kept on thinking on this strange practice but no right reply struck me.  After five days, while shopping, I was in another mall where I saw ethnic  eateries of India, Thailand, China, Sri Lanka etc in a row. We ordered for pakaude. Once again a Chinese boy came to my table with a plateful of sizzling pakaude. On my enquiry, my daughter, who is a PR of Singapore revealed that the workers in all business places, by law, should invariably be from all communities. This did not permit the owners to ignore any particular group and the working together of different ethnic groups promoted fraternity and nationalism among them.

Never before we had heard the name of Nitaqat, which is a labour law of Saudi Arabia, which is being now implemented strictly. The law provides that anywhere, after every ten foreign workers, one has to be a local. Previously, the businessmen of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar etc employed workers from their own country. It was so because of two reasons – firstly, they were more dependable and, secondly they accepted comparatively a smaller payment. This onesided practice was causing unemployment among the sons of the soil. So taking a cue from Singapore, the Saudis also brought a new labour law, named as Nitaqat. It not only stops any exclusion of the local workers but also compels the foreigners who are in Saudi Arabia without any valid documents to follow law. It has badly perturbed the foreign labour, majority of whom happen to be the  Indians.

It has been found that for the present there are 56,700 such illegal Indian workers there. Moreover, with the employment of the Saudis, the already engaged Indians will be surplus. Since they had been given the notice to quicklu quit, there was a great furore aming the affected Indians, the reverberation of which was heard in India as well. In order to sort out the matter, the Indian Foreign Minister rushed to Riyadh. The Saudi Govt cooperated and agreed to extend the deadline to July 3, 2013. As a result, a huge crowd can be seen daily infront of the Indian Embassy there for legalizing their return.

This huge return of the Indian workers from Saudi Arabia is bound to affect the economy of India as huge remittances from that country had brought economic advancement in Kerala, Andhra, UP  and Karnataka. These workers will have to either shift to some other country or start business in their home states. Anyway, this Saudi step is bound to work as a deterrent for the greedy people who  ignored law and brought bad name for the motherland.

HESITANT ON HAT-TRICK

Hat-trick in any field is  rated as an achievement of the concerned individual and he celebrates it with a lot of gusto. The same mood of partying is not visible on the face of Nawaz Sharif on his third electoral victory. This may be so also because the electorate did not give him a clear verdict. In a house of 274 members, he needed 137, the magic number for the majority. He could, however, win only 124 seats, short of the majority by 13 seats. Sharif was aware of the available hunting ground of the independents, who had succeeded in a good number. Accordingly, his party has managed the support of 18 independents, paving the way for the formation of the government with himself as the Prime Minister. Despite the completion of this pre-requisite, he does not appear in any hurry to occupy the premiership chair, mainly because of the multiple national and international problems.

The first problem, in the backdrop of his track record is that his approach to such issues is almost predictable to his countrymen. He inherited a huge fortune from his top business magnate father and has been running the same quite capably. Of course, he will not embark on any major policy which may militate against the business class. Secondly, we have seen that understanding the pro-Islamic  general trend of  the average Pakistanis, he will be obliging to them. Despite pressure from the USA and England to espouse democratic norms, he will prefer to be soft to the rabid Islamists. This was visible in course of his previous stints as well. He is aware that such a policy will antagonize these two major donor countries. The next point which makes him hesitant is his relation with the army, a major factor in the Pak polity. He must not have forgotten how Parwez Musharraf had stabbed him in back. This time he will go for an obliging army head. For this scheme of things to succeed, Sharif will have to wait for some months as the present Genl Kayani is retiring in next November. The last but not the least is his relations with the terrorists. He is known for indirectly patronizing these elements. Its continuance is once again bound to incur wrath of the West.

Despite the Vajpayee-Sharif Lahore talks, India knows that internally he does not nourish any good wishes for this neighbor. He may have declared to improve the Indo-Pak relations, but we know that he does not mean it. Will he stop infiltrating terrorists into India? Will he dismantle terror camps in POK? Will he deny China the use of  disputed Pok areas, intended to harass India? Will he give India the status of the most favoured nation in the matters of trade? Will he cooperate with the USA and India in restoring peace in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO forces from there?

It is believed that these baffling questions are testing his morale. So he is marking time to finalise his solid line of action. India wishes him good luck.  

WIDER AND DEEPER

When India became free, the new Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang  was of one year old.  When Mao brought China under Communism,  Li was of slightly more than three years. When he was of 19 years, as a young communist, he visited India in  delegation some 27 years ago. Now, at the age of 67, he came to India as his country’s premier and took such long time to learn a single Hindi word NAMASTE. If this is the rate of his learning, God knows after  how long he  will be able to rightly understand the depth of Indo-Chinese bilateral relations. This explains why he skipped  to answer any question from the press while in India, on the logic behind the Depsang Valley intrusion. He simply said that the problem of demarcating the borders between both the countries would be sorted out amicably. We know this old and much repeated cliché. Like any Chinese celebrity, Li also bears an enigmatic smile which does not match with the real thinking inside. In this respect, Li appears similar to his old predecessor, Zhou Enlai.

The political analysts in the world are aware that whether it is an American politician or a Chinese, after the India visit, his next stop is bound to be Islamabad. The compulsion is that both are the friends of Pakistan and of late they have started befriending India. For the USA, Pakistan is a very strategically important country particularly in its dealings with Afghanistan and Iran. Since the US is destined to withdraw forces from Afghanistan in 2014, it cannot be kept immuned from the Taliban influences without a friendly Pakistan. Pakistan itself, on the other hand, is in the throes fo terrorist menace and requires American help in cash and kind to handle the situation. So the US diplomats, immediately after leaving New Delhi, go to Islamabad and tell  their local counterpart that the US-Pak relationship would not be allowed to dilute.

The same exercise is repeated by the Chinese as well and by doing so, Li just fulfilled a customary duty. We understand that no country has done a better service to China than Pakistan by handing over Skirdu and adjoining areas of POK. Previously, China had to go for a long detour, if it wanted to visit Pakistan and other Arabian countries. Now, once the Karakoram Highway is complete, Chinese trucks, buses and other light vehicles can easily come to Pakistan and ferry materials from the Gwadar Port in southern Pakistan, developed by the Chinese investment and expertise. Will China ever want to antagonize that Pakistan?   It is inthis background that to the press at Islamabad, Li  made it publicly clear that while the Indo-Chinese relations were widening, the Sino-Pak mutual relation was taking still deeper routes. He said that at the cost of improving its relations with India, China would not sacrifice its Pak friendship. In this backdrop, we in India are still deciphering the enigmatic smile on Li’s face as well as the meaning of ‘wider’ and ‘deeper’.       

WHEN CHINA SAYS YES, IT MAY MEAN NO

I have been unsuccessfully  watching very closely the China-related news and views in both print and electronic media for last more than a month to get convinced about the elusive exact reason behind the sudden Chinese intrusion in north-east Ladakh. Exactly just one month before the scheduled India visit of the new Chinese Prime Minister, what was the need of this deliberate pin-prick in the so far normal looking bilateral relation. They came, stayed for some days and went back. Why did they come? We cannot believe that Li Keqiang, PM did not know about it. Despite all the bonhomie ostensibly shown by him in Delhi, the Indians did not enjoy as the incursion had spoilt the taste. On the other hand imagine about the friendly ambience if there was no joke on the border. What was the stratagem behind this inexplicable move?

One obvious reason appears to be, after capturing Aksaichin, to have an eye on this plateau. So long it was noman’s land and only occasional patrolling from both sides were going on, China had no problem. After India upgraded its three airfields at Daulat Beg Oldie, Niyoma and Phuchke in the area, China took it as a solid indication of Indian claim. They were afraid that if India strengthened its position in the area, it will be difficult for China to prove that it was within the LAC. That is why when both sides in the fourth flag meeting agreed to maintain status quo ante-April 15, China warned no further Indian movement in the region. Thus they succeeded at least in making that portion of  Indian land disputed.

If we peruse the post-1962 Chinese policies towards India, it will be found that China calculatedly pursued the policy of lingering the problems rather thand going honestly for necessary solutions. India has three problems from China – Tibetan refugees, three dams being constructed on the Brahmaputra in Tibet affecting the flow of water in the lower riparian areas of India and the conclusive demarcation of boundary of about 4,000 km between both the countries. Under Chinese pressure, we accepted Tibet as an autonomous region under Chinese sovereignty. We fought relentlessly for the displacement of Taiwan and inclusion of China in the UNO Security Council. The same China has been soft pedaling our demand for the expansion of the Security Council and inclusion of India. The Tibetan refugees, le by the Dalai Lama came to india in1959 and as yet they have not been allowed to go back to their home. Once again under Chinese pressure, we are not permitting Tibetans to carry on any political activity in India. Yet there is no sympathy in China for these hapless people. The first generation of the Tibetans who came here, have almost died and their new generation, born in India has no idea about their homeland.

Perhaps Napoleon about China had said the she was a sleeping lion and let her sleep because when she woke up, the world would be stirred up. We are seeing this forecast coming true. Immediately after its economic advancement, it started interfering in world politics and creating problems for its neighbours. It does not finalise border with any neighbour and puts pressure to accept the line, dictated by it. It will talk about peace and friendship and simultaneously carry out aggressive activities on borders. In the medieval period, the Chinese emperors thought that their countrywas the privileged centre of the world. Even at the present juncture, they have not forgotten this habit of self glorification. For the furtherance of this scheme of things, they may say yes when they actually mean no and vice versa. The countries, located on its borders, should remain warned to clearly read Chinese intentions.   

NITISH KEEPS BJP ON TENTERHOOKS

Due to continued ambivalence of  Nitish Kumar, the future of NDA appears gloomy in Bihar. Earlier, he had targeted Narendra Modi only to appease the minority electorates. When the BJP, strongly stuck to its stand of choosing any prime ministerial candidate as and when deemed fit because it was its own prerogative, Nitish thought it better to soft pedal the matter. Not wisely but cleverly he is playing a double game by pitting the Congress and the BJP against each other. More and more this trick is getting exposed, the political equations in the state are getting more and more complicated.

Nitish very well knows that he is leading a coalition Govt. which will instantly collapse the moment BJP decided to withdraw its support. In that situation, neither the Congress nor the RJD would pick up his chestnut out of the fire. In place of the BJP, he will have to kowtow to several other minor groups. In this scenario, he is not ready to push the BLP against the wall. He stretches the issues only to the extent that when it started going out of control, he can retract his steps. By organizing a big rally first at Patna and then at New Delhi, he wanted to give a message not only to the opposition political parties, but also to the alliance partner(BJP) that the JDU was the real force to reckon with. He was wrong in the assessment that the size of a rally, which normally has a commandeered crowd, is the indication of the mass base of a party. He has just seen that with only four MPs, the RJD could organize a still bigger rally in Patna. So he should not commit the folly of ignoring a tested partner.

The coming parliamentary election in Bihar is going to be an acute test of wits of the stakeholders. The Congress, RJD and JDU are going to concentrate on Muslim votes. There is no important Muslim leader behind whom these voters can rally. The BJP is not at all interested as it knows the attitude of these minority voters. So there will be a cut-throat competition involving the remaining three parties to grab Muslim votes. Nitish understands that despite the BJP as its alliance partner, he can attract Muslim votes only by accusing the BLP for its alleged communal policies. He wants these votes also because he would never like the revival of the Congress in his state. Only a couple of days back, Kirti Azad, BJP/MP from Darbahanga constituency was badly annoyed when in a locally held meeting, he was twice stopped from speaking by the Chief Minister. Such pin-pricks are bound to create mutual distrust which is not good for the coalition govt.

If the NDA decides to remain in power and win maximum number of parliamentary seats in the upcoming general election, both the alliance partners will have to shake off tricks which generate mistrust. Like in the past, they should sit together, finalise the election manifesto and boldly face the election. As per the indications available at present, this tested combination has no fear from any corner.

TIGHT ROPEWALK FOR NAWAZ SHARIF

Nawaz Sharif, the PM-designate, is yet to sassume the reins in his hand and he is seeing the ditches on the road ahead. He has started leaving indications that he is undeterred. However, the plethora of problems left  behind by the outgoing PPP Govt. may give him innumerable sleepless nights. The political analysts have started guessing about his likely response to such testing issues.

MIDDLE  PATH:  Pakistan still is under the beck and call of the rich politicians of Punjab. They do not permit any govt to ignore their interest. On the other hand, Al Qaeda, Talibans and other terrorist groups are determined to strictly follow Islamic tenets and teach a lesson to India so that she is compelld to run away from Kashmir. The Pakistan Tahreek-e Insaf of Imran Khan came forward with a democratic façade to attract the common man. He declared to improve bilateral relations with India and curb the terrorist groups. The PPP regime of Asif Ali Zardari, during its rule of five years became badly defamed for its mis-governance. Setting aside the extremes of Zardari and Imran, the electorate chose to adopt a middle course and voted for Sharif whom they had seen twice in past. However, Sharif does not have a magic band to handle all these divergent pressure groups.

ECONOMY: The state of affairs on economic front is going to  put him in a very tight corner. In last five years, the country has been recording 4% growth which is inadequate vis-à-vis the fast growing population. Nothing short of 8% annual growth is going to make Pakistan shining. The bilateral Indo-Pak trade is also harming Pak. Today it is at $2.5 billion, which is a peanut if we see the population size of both countries. It has to enhance many times more. Nawaz Sharif will also have to shake off Pak hesitation on extending most favourite nation status to India. Any further dithering is bound to militate agains Pak interests.

INDIA-PAK-IRAN RELATIONS:   We know very well how the flow of Iranian natural gas to India via Pakistan has been hanging fire for several years. This is also because the US does not want India to go closer to Iran. India is on the course of a diplomatic innovation to probe the possibility of an alternative route to avoid Pakistan. Hearing this new development, Pak has decided to accommodate others’ interests. Now it is for India to decide whether to depend on wavering Pakistan. Pakistan has opened Qwadar port for China who was lenient in financing this port just to harass India. They also objected to Indian materials going to Afghanistan via Pakistan. Once again India proved smarter by building Chabahr port in south Iran. Now the Indian access to Afghanistan will be easier.

KASHMIR:  Since their birth in 1947, both India and Pakistan have been fighting over Kashmir. The case is hanging fire in the UNO since 1948. They have fought three wars and sustained huge losses in men and materials. In last 66 years, despite hundreds of rounds of bilateral talks and confidence building measures, things have not moved an inch on positive track. Both the countries are observing LOC. Trans-border infiltrations and other crimes, over and above the military skirmishes have been disturbing mutual peace. Terrorist camps are being run in POK to be smuggled into India to create chaos. Will Sharif muster courage to hold  the extended friendship hand of India?

AFGHANISTAN:   we know that the US is scheduled to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in 2014. Immediately after that, the Talibans will try to snatch power from Karzai. India has invested some $2 billion for the economic development of that war ravaged country. If Pakistan did not play a creative role, Afghanistan will once again relapse into chaos. Some people hope that China and the US will join hands to maintain peace there after the withdrawal of American forces. That will be a good development and Sharif will have to espouse it.

We have only briefly touched upon some of the immediate problems of Pakistan waiting for necessary solutions from the new PM. If there is political harmony in this part of the world, India, China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan can all prosper.      

RETURN OF SPIES

During the cold war days,  both the super powers played intensive game of one upmanship, to browbeat each other. Often we heard stories of deep cover agents in the rival country to steal vital intelligence. This underworld game, after the Second World War, started being replayed at a high pitch from 1960s. It was the period when China also went nuclear and hence the developments became more interesting. Around the close of the last century, when the Gorbachov regime bid goodby to communism, the bipolar power centre had automatically contracted to unipolar. The scene of the looming war, went in the background and the world took a sigh of relief. In its wake, it also brought a situation in which spying, practiced by the USA and the erstwhile USSR  was considerably reduced, though on local levels, the espionage continued like in India and Pakistan, Israel and the Arab world etc.

After a gap of nearly 15 years, we have suddenly heard that this second oldest profession has not been forgotten and even the super powers resort to it. One American spy is reported to have been caught red- handed in Moscow. According to the media report, when nabbed he was wearing a blonde wig to mislead the local counter intelligence activists. In the intelligence parlance, he was under cover. He was identified as Ryan C. Fogle, the Third Secretary in the Political Section of the local American embassy. The Russians did not wait for any explanation. They declared him persona non grata and threw him out of the country.

Next day viz. May 15,2013 the Russian foreign ministry called the US Ambassador, Michael Mcfaul and asked him to explain the under cover inimical activities of his staff. Obviously, he would not have admitted the fault and said to look into the matter. Reacting to the development, Patriok Venbrell, American State Department spokesman confimed to  the press that a staffer of the Moscow based US chancery had been briefly detained. However, he stoutly disowned the charge that the individual had indulged in any under cover activities.

There is nothing new in this story which may surprise anybody. The only pinching point is the reappearance of this dishonest game. Resorting to spying means lack of faith in the target  country. The disbelief in a country further worsens the mutual relation and may culminate into hot war. We wish both the matured nations to observe restraint and not allow the situation to go worse any more.

SALAM TO PAKISTAN AWAM

In the last 66 years of its existence, democracy has been playing truant with the Pak destiny. Repeated military rules did not give sufficient time to the people to appreciate the benefits of democracy. However, the just concluded general election there has given indications of a better future. Braving all odds, the people came out to exercise their franchise. For the first time a democratically elected government completed its full tenure and is handing over power to another elected govt. For this the Pakistan awam deserves a hearty hats off from the entire democratic world

At the outset, the Pakistan watchers, in the wake of blatant criminal activities of the terrorists, led by the Pak Taliban, had serious doubts about the peaceful completion of the general election. The terror outfits had made it sufficiently clear that democracy did not suit the Islamic tenets and hence they would make all efforts to thwart the election. They had targeted several candidates and warned the electorate to keep off voting. Some election meetings were disturbed causing casualties and injuries to the innocent public. Despite such a looming threat, the people came out of their homes and voted for the candidates of their choice. Barring a few incidents, the election was conducted peacefully which boosted the morale of the law and order machinery. The percentage of voting was breathtaking 60% of which, the 18 crore Pakistanis  can definitely feel proud.

The journalistic forecasts, appear to have slightly missed the target on a few points. Originally they felt that the people will vote on ideological lines which was not seen anywhere. Rather the voters were guided by their regional loyalties. Imran Khan, the cricketer -cum-politician is a Pathan of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, his main support base. He fought election from four constiruencies and won in three. However, most of the seats of his Tahreek-e-Insaf have come from the home province. On the other hand, Sindh has been the bastion of the Bhutto family since the days of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Accordingly, Zardari’s PPP got maximum votes from Karachi areas only. Though the leading Pakistan Muslim League(N) has attracted countrywide response, but the real victory has come from Punjab, home of Nawaz Sharif. Not only that, his party has simultaneously retained its hold on Punjab province with a still better majority. The number two party of Imran is far way behind Sharif.

During the election  campaigns, one could get an idea that the result will give a split verdict. The voters proved wiser by giving chance to one party so that there was no political uncertainty. Some people thought that with a clean image and internal support of the army and the Talibans, Imran Khan might emerge victorious. Once again the voters decided to depend on the old war-horse, Nawaz Sharif. We in India wish his this hatrick of  victory to be luckier so that the Indo-Pak relations assumed a chapter of peace and prosperity.      

  

A serious draft must be preceded by a serious thinking

                                                   When I think before writing a blog

FALLACIOUS POLITICAL FORECASTS

With the electrates getting more and more educated day by day,  it is very risky to make any political forecast, particularly when an ostensible trend is not perceptible on ground.  Wisemen avoid to commit in such a situation. However, there are some  smug politicians who enjoy issuing tall claims about their political acumen and electoral prospects. Obviously when the reality goes against such tall claims, they cut a very sorry picture in the public.

Some years back, Lalu Yadav had come on a TV channel for a face- to- face talk. The anchor invited his response on his diminishing support base in Bihar. He became angry and mentioned that he was the son of the soil having direct contact with people. He should not be compared with armchair politicians who give statements from their airconditioned rooms. He claimed that he was the doctor of politics with his fingers on the public nerve. So no anchor should mislead him. His face was so red with anger that the anchor, a famous person of his field, at once changed the topic to avoid any confrontation.

Similarly, when the counting of votes of the last assembly election of Bihar was going on and his party was badly losing, he was feeling not at all perturbed. When some press correspondents drew his attention, he explained that his main support base was in Darbhanga, Madhubani and other adjoining districts and when the counting will take lace there, the scene will take a complete turn and his opposition political parties would be forced to lick dust. Later when the counting of these districts was completed, to his utter surprise, his RJD had been mercilessly rejected by the voters. Then he changed  the colour of his explanation by accusing the winning sides  with adopting unfare means.

We know that for last more than a month, two scandals – coalgate and railgate have been exercising the mind of the mass and the entire second part of the Budget Session ended without any legislative business. Different politicians responded to the issue befitting their ideologies. However Lalu said that both Ashwani Kumar (Law Minister) and Pawan Kumar Bansal(Rail Minister) were innocent and the BJP had made it a habit of accusing opposite parties. Even Sharad Yadav, JDS President did not lag behind in issuing the certificate of innocence. He declared that he personally knew P.K.Bansal for several years for being an honest man. When new charges against both started surfacing, such commentators were saying that Bansal will be dropped from the cabinet and for being close to the P.M., the Law Minister would be transferred to some other ministries. To prove them all wrong, in a sudden development, initiated by the UPA Cairperson, both of them were shown the exit gate. The lesson learnt is that the people at large should not be misguided by such tall talkers particularly when they distribute certificates of innocence, secularism etc.

INTEGRATION OF TRAVANCORE PRINCELY STATE

The world knows about the indefatigable efforts of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel for the integration of the country after independence , because the princely states had been given the option of deciding their own fate. Patel, the Home Minister, known as the ‘iron man’ had to apply his whole knowledge, experience, foresight and diplomacy to accomplish this arduous task as each maharaja or nawab was creating different problems. Our scriptures have highlighted the qualities of a successful king and Sardar Patel demonstrated that he possessed all of them. We also know that out of over 500 princely states, the most problematic were J&K, Junagarh and Hyderabad. However, not so difficult was the case of Travancore. The solution of this state shows his deft handling.

When the king died, his son Rama Varma (He had a very long official name) was just a minor. So the Queen, Maharani Sethu Parvathi Bai started functioning as the dowager mother.  When the problem of integration was being sorted out separately with each state, Rama Varma was still not adequately matured.

In Delhi, he had audience with the sardar who enquired to know about his decision with regard to getting merged with India.  The young Maharaja said that his family was devoted to Lord Padmanabhan and hence he would decide only when the Lord gave him permission to do so. The intelligent Sardar Patel got up, straight went to his worship room and quickly came back to inform Rama Varma that Swami Padmanabhan had given the permission. Varma did not take even a second to think over and immediately signed on the annexation documents, kept in front of him. Sardar Patel, encashing the unflinching faith of the young Maharaja in his deity, could sort out the issue perhaps in the easiest way.  

LALU'S JOURNEY TO NOWHERE

Even after a continuous wilderness of a decade, Lalu Yadav does not seem to have learnt any lesson. When he was convincingly defeated twice by his bête noire, Nitish Kumar, heading the JDS and BJP combine in Bihar, he found the Bihar turf slippery and decided to shift to the national capital. Was it a pragmatic decision? The situation as available today, shows that perhaps he committed harakiri.

Originally he thought that the new coalition being a marriage of highly dissimilar partners would collapse under its inherent contradictions and on his return to Patna, the betrayed people would open-heartedly welcome Lalu as a true saviour. It was a pure and simple miscalculation. In the backdrop of nearly 15 years of Lalu-Rabri misgovernance, the performing alternative of Nitish Govt opened the eyes of the voters. The disturbing law and order situation was brought under control, academic peace and punctuality returned to the educational campus and the whole state was connected with a network of dependable metalled roads. On the other hand Lalu kept on kotowing the UPA head in the hope of diluting the charges against him being enquired into by the CBI. On every decision of the UPA in the Parliament and outside, Lalu continued to extend unconditional support. Finding his minuscule status in the House, the Congress did not give him value to his expectation.

The picture being so, while Nitish was taking the state to the path of progress faster than ever before in the long Lalu dispensation, Lalu was singing the UPA chorus in Delhi. He appeared like a NRI in his home state. The worst effects of this stand was suffered by Lalu when the next assembly election was staged. It further reduced the political stature of both Lalu and his alliance partner Ram Vilas Paswan. Still the RJD supremo, without reading the writing on the wall, stuck to his policy of UPA appeasement. To the utter surprise of gullible Lalu, the politics, known for unexpected  changes, forced him to pause and think afresh because the Congress was seen probing the friendship of the  JDS, the growing force in the state.

Finding himself nowhere, Lalu understood  the ground reality and immediately returned to Bihar to win back his vote bank. He is going to organize a big rally in Patna on May 15. His workers know that being without power will not help them to pull the crowd like in past. Moreover, the time will be of peak heat and humidity and the people will avoid to join the crowd. In the past, in a similar ambitious rally of P.V.Narsimharao at the Red Fort Ground, people preferred to remain in the surrounding lanes and bylanes to avoid the piercing sun. They have seen the Bihar Bachao rally of R.V.Paswan, some months back which betrayed his expectations. Lalu needs more thinking to determine his future line of action.     

DRAGON's MYSTERIOUS WITHDRAWAL

They came, they saw, but did not conquer. It looks so simple but one should not commit the mistake of calling China so naïve. There must have been a well thought out plan for their intrusion and a similar objective behind withdrawing. One thing is very clear that they are highly self-righteous. They themselves decide the sovereignty of a land, they finalise the line of control, they attack as and when they like and go back under a unilateral decision. This has been observed since 1962. But this fun looking move ultimately appears to have  won a point, if we go into the pros and cons.

A learned professor of the Patna University, after 1962, when China started befriending the Indian neighbouring countries by constructing roads there, would say that all roads made by China are actually inroads. Nearly 50 personnel, accompanied with two ferocious  Molosser dogs, five tents, ammunitions and other wherewithals must have taken several months of preparations. They also had planned how the supplies would come regularly from Chip Chap valley, some 25 km away by trucks through an unmetalled road. Over and above these ground realities, they also must have done detailed homework on diplomatic planes to adequately reply Indian charges.

The entire Daulat Beg Oldi region is an uninhabited area. Since 1962, both sides have been sending patrol parties at regular intervals to keep alive their claim on the area. As a matter of fact, the history and concened records show that it beloned to the kingdom of J&K which legally merged with India. However, for China no such proof carry any meaning. Exactly after half a century of 1962 incursions, China had seceded to once again forcibly capture this area. So they came prepared but now the logic behind the move appears to  have been testing the water. Even though in 1962, when India being not war-ready, it had to test defeat but after inflicting a great loss to China. Some years back, when Mulayam Singh Yadav was the Defence Minister, they were chased by the Indian troops to some four km inside the enemy territory.

This time too, they also intended to take stock of Indian determination. They found that the determined India immediately dispatched its para-military forces in the close vicinity of the Chinese camp. Planning was to rush the military as well. The Indian Foreign Minister expressed his inability to go to China on a state visit till the intrusion was vacated. This also brought clouds on the proposed India visit of the new Chines Prime Minister. To cap these all, the Indian move to cut the supply line, made the Chinese shaky. They , obviously were not prepared for this huge engagement. So they agreed in the fourth flag meeting to withdraw by the evening of May5, if India also responded accordingly. Though the problem stands sorted out for the time being, but the decision appears to have slightly gone in favour of China as it has confirmed that the area is really disputed.    

SARABJiT & SANAULLAH

Sarabjit Singh and Sanaullah are two names, which in recent few months have so much influenced the Indo-Pak relations that almost war-like bitterness has overtaken the people in both the countries. Sarabjit was awaiting his hanging in Kot Lakhpat Jail in Pakistan and the Pak national Rana Sanaullah Haq was in a Jammu jail as a life convict. In themselves they mattered very little but when the atmosphere becomes vicious, one individual is subjected to inhuman treatment as if his whole country was being humiliated.

Sarabjit, a young farmer of a Punjab village, some thirty years ago, once while working in his field, close to the Pak border, under intoxication wandered into Pak territory where he was arrested. It was the time when Lahore blast had taken place and Pak investigators found the name of one Manjeet Singh. In their over enthusiasm, they claimed to have caught the real culprit. Under duress, before a magistrate, he was compelled to give a self-damaging statement that actually he was Manjit Singh and that he was involved in the Lahore blasts. Ultimately, the court awarded him death sentence.

When the information reached India, Sarabjit’s family members,comprising his wife, two daughters and brave sister, named Dalbir Kaur, engaged a local advocate and moved the court to prove that it was a case of mistaken identity. By that time Asif Ali Zardari had become the President of Pakistan. The Govt of India pursued the case through diplomatic channels and succeeded only in delaying the almost looming hanging. The efforts at different levels were afoot and optimism rose high about his safe relief. Once the tv news indicated that he will be back to India within a couple of days. The family members, under this elusive hope distributed sweets. Immediately then there was a blunt denial from Pakistan.

In this background, Afzal Guru, for his involvement in the terrorist attack on Parliament was in jail and counting days for the noose round his neck, which ultimately came in 2013. It was a strong slap on the terrorists in both the countries and they were itching for retaliation. This token retaliation came when two other co-Pak convicts mercilessly and fatally beat Sarabjeet. The jail authorities were fully responsible as there was a warning about dangers to Sarabjeet’s life. The Govt of India demanded his return to India or shifting to a neutral country for better treatment which was flatly rejected. They did not carry out a post-mortem examination. Ultimately, only the deadbody of the man was brought to India. The post-mortem here revealed several reasons for his death including brain damage, heart failure and breaking of some rib bones. Sarabjeet was cremated in his paternal village with full military honour. He was declared a martyr. However, the Indian psyche is still badly perturbed over the brutality of a state where the rule of law and Human Rights hardly carry any meaning.

On the other hand, Rana Sanaullah, a Pakistani citizen of Lahore, who was under life imprisonment in a Jammu jail, for eight terrirorist crimes in Srinagar, almost got a similar treatment from an enraged co-prisoner. This armyman fro Uttarakhand is in jail  for killing a collegue. For this crime,  he is being court-martialled. The brutal killing of Sarbjeet had stirred up his conscience and as a token of revenge, when there was a small wordy duel, he hit Sanaullah with a gardening implement and the victim fell unconscious. He was immediately taken to a local hospital wherefrom he was referred to PGI Chandigarh for a better treatment. His condition continues to remain critical. However, the Govt of India is taking all steps which a responsible govt should do. His family members have been allowed to see him. The Pak High Cmmission diplomats  visited the hospital. For this laxity, the jail Superintendent and a few others were suspended. Enquiry is going on.

These are the two sides of a coin, which looks like a counterfeit. By killing a prisoner, can we punish his motherland? It is like pelting stones on a public bus because a policeman rightly or wrongly  slapped somebody. This amply indicates that despite several rounds of CBMs, there is a lack of faith in the people of both countries. Pakistani payers were not allowed to play in the ongoing IPL matches since they beheaded an Indian soldier. These unfortunate developments are definitely bringing both countries close to a hot war which both sides realize will be mutually destructive. Let reason and diplomacy prevail over these pin-pricks.  

          

CHINA MOVED : INDIA CONFUSED

The Chinese army posse, which intruded 19 kms in Indian territory of Depsang Valley in eastern Ladakh, did not come to see and go back. This time it appears to be a deeply thought out strategy. They came on April 15, pitched tents and are engaged in augmenting their supply line for a longer strategic stay.  Even the fourth flag meeting in Chushul ended inconclusively like the previous three.

The strangest part of this uncalledfor Chinese adventure is that since 1962 battles, China has been calling the shot. They attacked India without any provocation in Oct. 62. Then suddenly they unilaterally declared ceasefire on the 20^th of that month and went behind a self-drawn Actual Line of Control(LAC). There are two LACs. They had intruded in 1960 also and the point of their retreat was one LAC. The line behind which they withdrew in 1962 became another LAC. The present incursion is the violation of both the LACs, drawn by them. When charged and asked to return to the previous position, they explain that they have not violated any international border and were in their own land.

Some Sinologists hold the view that this move may be the favourable ground preparation for bargaining in the next round of negotiations on demarcation of borders. According to them, last time China went back from Arunachal Pradesh reluctantly. But its greed for a particular chunk of land persists. In future border talks, they may  agree to maintain status quo in Depsang Valley, if India accepted to hand over the claimed land in Arunachal Pradesh.

The reactions from the politicians in India have been at cross purposes. We remember Nehru’s comment in 1962 that the area which China had occupied was barren and nod even a blade of grass grew there. It was badly criticized. Almost in the same vein, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Home Minister said that he had seen the area which was noman’s land and hence such activities keep on going there. Here we may point Out that three small islands being disputed by China and Japan are uninhabited and still both the claimants are reluctant to play down the issue. Even Salman Khurshid, Minister for External affairs said that the incident was just an acne, requiring some ointment for treatment. A journalist, in a national daily warned him that sometimes the acne can disfigure the face. By far the whole issue needs some more pragmatic handling.

The Chief of the Army Staff briefed the Cabinet and made presentation about the likely courses to be adopted by India. One is diplomatic cannel to convince the aggressive neighbor. Second is to open more and more Indian camps in the area. The third bold step may be cutting the supply line of China. The supply is coming by truck from Chip Chap in Aksaichin and the road of about 25 km is kutcha. China intends to make it metalled so that the movement will be easier. This line is definitely fraught with escalation.

POLL PROSPECTS IN PAKISTAN

The Pak tryst with democracy has been  almost a joke in the comity of nations. The mililitary interventions have been so rapid and the army  rules so much pronounced that rarely one thinks about free elections  and an elected govt in Pakistan. The coming of democratic govts and their military takeovers have been like the rapid chess games. The army there has tasted blood(power) and feels restless without it. Today, once again,Pakistan is on the threshold of a general election on May 11, 2013. This election being staged amid badly disturbed internal peace, is not evoking much interest in the voters. Despite that, a general election of any country is a big event and hence the likely prospects of contesting parties appear to be quite interesting.

At the outset, with Genl Perwez Musharraf, Imran Khan, Mian Nawaz Sharif and  of course Asif Ali Zardari, It clearly looked like being a four-cornerd war at the hustings. However, with the cancellation of the nomination papers of Musharraf from all the four constiruencies, his fate was sealed. Thus with the remaining only three important stake  holders in the field, the contest, by far has become triangular. There are several other minor groups and individuals as independent candidates in the fray, but they can be ignored. Very few of them, holding local following, may either marginally win or cause defeat of an important contestant through split votes. On previous occasions, being a stiff anti-Indian, was supposed to be the greatest qualification of a candidate. One who talked about forcibly taking back India-held Kashmir, was treated as a real hero. Quite contrarily, this time, all the major players, in their manlfestoes, have decleared to solve Kashmir problem amicably and foster Indo-Pak friendship. It appears that the traditional war mongering has been given a goodbye.

 The Pak watchers, by and large are of the opinion that the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by Nawaz Sharif is having a better chance of emerging as the single largest party. They view that since he was dethroned by Musharraf, he is likely to get more sympathy votes. Moreover, the present dispensesion, not delivering the good, has caused frustration in the public and hence they appear to be in favour of change. In India, his talk of friendship does not appear dependable because while he was talking with Vajpayee for peace, his army was stealthily capturing summits in Kargil. The Tahreek-e Insaf of Imran Khan is also highly optimistic of winning the electin. Recently while in India, he had declared his victory as a foregone conclusion and assured of friendly relations with India. It is further believed that internally he enjoys army support. However, his strong anti-militant stand is a big minus point. Even his personal security is at stake. The third major player is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). President Zardari is a known corrupt leader since the days of Benazir Bhutto’s premiership. Even as the present President, he has failed to restore normalcy, take the country on economic growth path and improve Indo-Pak bilateral relations. Day in and day out, the terrorists are killing people and the administration is a mute spectator.The army is also not happy with his performance. On several occasions in the recent past, the army take over loomed large. On April 29, the judiciary banned Musharraf for life from contesting any election. Judicary, army and the terrorists are more proactive than ever before. The black shadows of disturbances appear so likely that the completion of the election seems in jeopardy.

In this backdrop, despite the tall talks of rival parties, hardly any clear verdict in favour of any party appears possible. The only clear indication is that the votes will be so much divided that no single party will be able to form govt. They are so diametrically opposed to one another that even a coalition does not seem to be a possibility. This uncertain political situation will be an excellent opportunity for Genl Kayani, waiting in the wings, to grab power.