FALLACIOUS POLITICAL FORECASTS

With the electrates getting more and more educated day by day,  it is very risky to make any political forecast, particularly when an ostensible trend is not perceptible on ground.  Wisemen avoid to commit in such a situation. However, there are some  smug politicians who enjoy issuing tall claims about their political acumen and electoral prospects. Obviously when the reality goes against such tall claims, they cut a very sorry picture in the public.

Some years back, Lalu Yadav had come on a TV channel for a face- to- face talk. The anchor invited his response on his diminishing support base in Bihar. He became angry and mentioned that he was the son of the soil having direct contact with people. He should not be compared with armchair politicians who give statements from their airconditioned rooms. He claimed that he was the doctor of politics with his fingers on the public nerve. So no anchor should mislead him. His face was so red with anger that the anchor, a famous person of his field, at once changed the topic to avoid any confrontation.

Similarly, when the counting of votes of the last assembly election of Bihar was going on and his party was badly losing, he was feeling not at all perturbed. When some press correspondents drew his attention, he explained that his main support base was in Darbhanga, Madhubani and other adjoining districts and when the counting will take lace there, the scene will take a complete turn and his opposition political parties would be forced to lick dust. Later when the counting of these districts was completed, to his utter surprise, his RJD had been mercilessly rejected by the voters. Then he changed  the colour of his explanation by accusing the winning sides  with adopting unfare means.

We know that for last more than a month, two scandals – coalgate and railgate have been exercising the mind of the mass and the entire second part of the Budget Session ended without any legislative business. Different politicians responded to the issue befitting their ideologies. However Lalu said that both Ashwani Kumar (Law Minister) and Pawan Kumar Bansal(Rail Minister) were innocent and the BJP had made it a habit of accusing opposite parties. Even Sharad Yadav, JDS President did not lag behind in issuing the certificate of innocence. He declared that he personally knew P.K.Bansal for several years for being an honest man. When new charges against both started surfacing, such commentators were saying that Bansal will be dropped from the cabinet and for being close to the P.M., the Law Minister would be transferred to some other ministries. To prove them all wrong, in a sudden development, initiated by the UPA Cairperson, both of them were shown the exit gate. The lesson learnt is that the people at large should not be misguided by such tall talkers particularly when they distribute certificates of innocence, secularism etc.