KARNATAKA POLL PROSPECTS

The Assembly election of Karnataka is scheduled to take place on May5, 2013. Despite the electioneering reaching its peak, the public interest appears palpably subdued. The political analysts think that it is so not because of the multiple stakeholders but also  the electorate’s feeling of having been cheated by the ruling party. The huge mining scandals caused a deep sense of frustration in them.

In the last election, the main contestants were the  Congress,  BJP and JDS. The BJP, led by B.S. Yeddyurappa scored an unprecedented victory and the party, so far known as a North Indian party, made its successful entry in the South. But the bonhomie did not last long. Yedyurappa was found involved in huge illegal mining related scandals. He had to resign from the chief ministership and go behind bars. He left the BJP and formed his separate political party with the threat that the ruling BJP govt. would collapse. This did not happen. With his entry in the electoral battle, the scene has become more complicated.

Today the main players are the Congress,  BJP, JDS and Yeddyurappa’s party. Congress is hoping that the anti-incumbency factor and the misgovernance of the BJP govt  would give it a solid chance of returning to power. The JDS thinks that the leadership of Devegouda, ex- Prime Minister would help it to sail through the testing election. Yeddyurappa hopes that it was his achievement that the BJP won the last election and hence his voters remaining intact would ensure his return to power. On the other hand, the ruling BJP discards all these arguments and is highly optimistic to retain power. Its star poll managers are hoping that the  like the ther BJP rebels including  Sankar Singh Baghela and Keshubhai Patel of Gujarat, Uma Bhari of Madhya Pradesh and kalyan Singh of UP, who utterly failed to dethrone the BJP, the Karnataka rebel Yeddyurappa will also lick the dust and the BJP would manage to form the govt.

Amid these contradictory claims, it appears difficult to bet on a particular party. However, the indications are that this four-cornered contest is actually bipartite between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress hopes that it would come back to power with a huge majority. On the other hand the ruling party understands that due to split, it may get some less seats but workable enough to form the govt. According to the JDS, both the national parties have betrayed the voters and hence they would rally behind Devegouda. Yeddyurappa does not appear so hopeful. He hopes to play spoilgame. he is depending on Lingayat votes.

In this backdrop, it appears that the verdict of the electorate is going to he badly divided. Even though the national parties will be front runners, they will have to appease the two runners up for their kingmaker role. One more possibility is that if required, the BJP may woo Yeddyurappa back to its fold. If offered a powerful position, an ambitious politician like him may not  deny the opportunity. Developments will be closely watched.