CONFUSIONS IN COALITIONS

Rajiv  Gandhi was the last prime minister, enjoying a single party majority in the House after the post- Mrs. Indira Gandhi  assassination General Election, held in 1984. After his tenure concluded, an unending trend of coalition governments came in vogue. On the verge of the upcoming General Election in 2014, every political party, national or regional understands that one-party rule is still like a distant dream. The scenario being so, there is nothing strange when we see that they all are eagerly waiting for the developments suiting their gameplan but keeping the cards close to their chests. Consequently, the people at large appear to be confused. Indications so far emanating from some important stake holders need to be watched carefully.

The biggest state with 80 parliamentary seats, like in the past, continues to hold the key as almost all political analysts believe that the road to the prime ministership goes from UP. The state at present has four senior contenders – Congress, BJP, BSP and SP, the last two being the front runners. Today, both Mayavati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, being involved in corruption cases, pursued by the CBI, are out of compulsion supporting UPA from outside though they do not see eye to eye. One of them will align with the Congress and automatically the other will join the BJP camp. Mulayam has internally realized that the Congress is more in favour of BSP because its votebank is dependable and on the beck and call of Mayavati is often transferred easily. Therefore, the SP supremo, quite tactfully has started praising Advani and late Shyama Prasad Mukherjee. Rajnath Singh is undisturbed because he knows that one will fall in his lap.

Similarly, two equally matching rivals of Tamil Nadu, namely Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa have established a tradition of going with one national party. Without any ideological preference, they have been in BJP and Congress camps, simply because the enemy is in one camp, I should join the rival camp. Despite being once ditched, the BJP is still hoping to befriend the unpredictable AIDMK supremo. Since DMK has announced to withdraw even the outside support to Manmohan Singh Govt, it has left the hint of its availibilty to the desirous camp.

Other reckonable parties are TMC, JDU and Akali Dal (B). Mamata has been in both the NDA and the UPA. For the present she has not shown any open preference and like a matured politician will definitely wait to strike the fial decision. Due to some anti-Modi statements of some JDU leaders, people were guessing that Nitish was planning to shake off BJP and align with Congress. One should understand that any true Lohiaite will never support Congres. He has been critical of Modi not because he himself puts himself in the line for the premiership, but simply because he does not want to antagonize his minority voters. The things have by and large become clear as Nitish and Sharad Yadav have declared their decision of not having any truck with the Congress. They had given some sweet hopes to the Congress leaders so that they could favourably take up Bihar’s case for special status. Even Sharad has been retained as the party president and with no change in the team, one can deduce no change in coalition partner as well. Two things are clear – first that the Akali Dal(B) will continue in the NDA and the second that the Communists, who are not comfortable with either the UPA or NDA, will try their best to revive the mythical Third Front. For that they are probing Mulayam, Lalu, Devegouda, Sharad Pawar and some others. For the present it appears to be just a wishful thinking.

It is due to the above confusion that both the leading players are hesitant to announce their pime ministerial candidates. For BJP the naming of Narendra Modi will annoy JDU and some other partners. For Congress, if the election result proved below expectation, the political career of Rahul Gandhi will be doomed. So, there are talks that Dr. Manmohan Singh may be projected for a hat-trick. On the other hand, some NDA partners have favoured the candidature of Adwani. Confusions all around.